Sarasota Herald Tribune
by Kate Spinner
April 19, 2011
ATLANTA – Count on a busy hurricane season, forecasters say, but not on the same fortunate weather that shunted last year’s storms — including four extremely powerful hurricanes — away from the U.S. coast.
Last year’s hurricane season was unusual. It was one of the busiest on record, with 12 hurricanes — five of them major — and seven tropical storms, but none caused significant widespread damage in the U.S.
The story could have been much different had the hurricanes followed a more typical weather pattern, said Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, during a speech at the National Hurricane Conference on Tuesday.
Instead, large high pressure areas formed over the middle of the U.S. and over the Atlantic, steering most of the season’s storms — and all of the hurricanes — away from the east coast and the Gulf of Mexico states.
That unusual pattern is unlikely to be repeated this year.
“In the peak of summer it’s not unusual to get stuck in a pattern,” Read said in an interview after his speech. “But to have the same pattern back-to-back would be very unusual.”
Read and Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate urged people — including newly elected state governors and local leaders — to have emergency plans in place, as well as supplies of food, water and first aid in preparation for the six-month season that begins June 1.
In all, four major hurricanes, three lesser hurricanes and two tropical storms were steered away from the U.S. coast as they approached from the Atlantic in 2010. Two storms — Earl and Igor — struck Canada.
Different weather patterns pushed the season’s remaining 10 storms of the season, including one other major storm, into Mexico and the Caribbean. One tropical storm — Bonnie — passed briefly over Florida’s southern tip. Hermine caused severe flooding in Texas and Oklahoma.
Several meteorologists have predicted a very active season this year. Forecasts range from 15 to 16 named storms, including eight to nine hurricanes, three to five of which produce winds higher than 110 mph.
The forecasts are based on warmer-than-normal temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and weaker-than-normal upper level westerly winds, among several other factors. Warmer seas give storms more fuel and weaker upper level westerlies allow hurricanes an easier ride across the ocean.
Hurricane track forecasts are becoming more accurate, helping community leaders and residents to make better evacuation decisions.
But this year, many of those decision-makers will be new to the job of evacuating the pubic and have no experience with hurricanes, Fugate said. Florida, Alabama, South Carolina and Virginia all have new governors.
Fugate said elected leaders need to participate in drills now, to get practice making difficult evacuation decisions.
Evacuations, especially in tourist areas, cost communities money and sometimes put people in hospitals and nursing homes at risk.
But wrong decisions can have tragic consequences.
In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott put the Division of Emergency Management directly under his control, a move that signals support for emergency operations, said David Halstead, director of Emergency Management for Florida. He said the governor and his staff are participating in emergency planning for the hurricane season.
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